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Doesn't the CIA have a measure for the likelihood of regime overturn that could be used to predict local collapse?

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What measure are you talking about here?

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As a meta-history nerd this is an absolutely fantastic overview. Lots of stuff I wasn’t aware of, like the collapse by complexity thesis. Going to save this article for future reference.

N.B. I’ve just finished Toynbee’s Study of History. As I recall he argues that societies go through 3 and a half cycles of growth and decay before finally collapsing. I guess this would broadly fit into social cycle theory, though I’m not sure if there’s much statistical data to back up this particular version.

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